On the Bayesian analysis of the earthquake hazard in the North-East Indian peninsula
IR@C-MMACS: CSIR-Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation, Bangalore
View Archive Info| Field | Value | |
| Title |
On the Bayesian analysis of the earthquake hazard
in the North-East Indian peninsula
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| Creator |
Parvez, Imtiyaz A
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| Subject |
Computational Seismology
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| Description |
Abstract The Bayesian extreme-value distribution of earthquake occurrences has
been used to estimate the seismic hazard in 12 seismogenic zones of the North-East
Indian peninsula. The Bayesian approach has been used very efficiently to combine
the prior information on seismicity obtained from geological data with historical
observations in many seismogenic zones of the world. The basic parameters to
obtain the prior estimate of seismicity are the seismic moment, slip rate, earthquake
recurrence rate and magnitude. These estimates are then updated in terms of Bayes’
theorem and historical evaluations of seismicity associated with each zone. From the
Bayesian analysis of extreme earthquake occurrences for North-East Indian peninsula,
it is found that for T = 5 years, the probability of occurrences of magnitude
(Mw = 5.0–5.5) is greater than 0.9 for all zones. For Mw = 6.0, four zones namely Z1
(Central Himalayas), Z5 (Indo-Burma border), Z7 (Burmese arc) and Z8 (Burma
region) exhibit high probabilities. Lower probability is shown by some zones
namely Z4, Z12, and rest of the zones Z2, Z3, Z6, Z9, Z10 and Z11 show moderate
probabilities.
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| Publisher |
Springer
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| Date |
2006-07-19
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| Type |
Article
PeerReviewed |
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| Format |
application/pdf
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| Identifier |
http://cir.cmmacs.ernet.in/36/1/natural%2Dhazard%2D2007.pdf
Parvez, Imtiyaz A (2006) On the Bayesian analysis of the earthquake hazard in the North-East Indian peninsula. Natural Hazards, 40 (2). pp. 397-142. |
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| Relation |
http://www.springerlink.com
http://cir.cmmacs.ernet.in/36/ |
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