Advanced forecasting of tropical cyclone with GCM: Track hindcasting
IR@C-MMACS: CSIR-Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation, Bangalore
View Archive Info| Field | Value | |
| Title |
Advanced forecasting of tropical cyclone with GCM: Track hindcasting
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| Creator |
Goswami, P
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| Subject |
Climate Modelling
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| Description |
Relatively rare but a regular component of our climate system, the tropical cyclones pose a serious and growing threat to many coastal areas world over; there is increasing demand for better accuracy as well longer range for tropical cyclone forecasts. Besides, there are issues like the effect of an intense system like a tropical cyclone in the embedding large-scale environment that cannot be properly addressed using Limited Area Models (LAM) - the traditional tool for dynamical forecasting of cyclones. We show here that a relatively new class of Global Circulation Models (GCM), combining the advantages of LAMs and global models, can provide both longer range and better accuracy for such critical parameters like track and intensity. For seven cyclones representing different locations, seasons, years and type, simulated tracks and land-fall locations show, with initial condition more than 5 days ahead and only monthly climatology of sea surface temperature (SST), less error than those from current operational forecast 48 hours in advance. Other interesting features of the simulations include selective intensification from multiple incipient systems. The results open up a new approach to forecasting as well investigating dynamics of tropical cyclones
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| Publisher |
CSIR Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation
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| Date |
2003-02
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| Type |
Monograph
NonPeerReviewed |
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| Format |
application/pdf
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| Identifier |
http://cir.cmmacs.ernet.in/201/1/rrcm0302.pdf
Goswami, P (2003) Advanced forecasting of tropical cyclone with GCM: Track hindcasting. Technical Report. CSIR Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation, C-MMACS,Bangalore 560037,India. (Unpublished) |
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| Relation |
http://cir.cmmacs.ernet.in/201/
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