C-MMACS Long-range, High-resolution Forecasting of Monsoon Rainfall: Forecast Configuration and Multi-scale Evaluation of 2007 Monsoon
IR@C-MMACS: CSIR-Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation, Bangalore
View Archive Info| Field | Value | |
| Title |
C-MMACS Long-range, High-resolution Forecasting of Monsoon Rainfall:
Forecast Configuration and Multi-scale Evaluation of 2007 Monsoon
|
|
| Creator |
Goswami, P
Gouda, K C K V, Ramesh |
|
| Subject |
Climate Modelling
|
|
| Description |
We present results from an effort to develop and quantify skill in monsoon forecasting at long range and
high spatial resolution. We first briefly describe the calibration and the optimization of the model
configuration, supported by a statistical evaluation of 24 (1980-2003) model hindcasts of rainfall for
June-August from a 5-member ensemble. A multi-scale evaluation of the forecasts for 2007 is then
presented using observations from different sources. The onset, as predicted by C-MMACS in April
2007, was 26th May, while the onset was announced by IMD as 28th May. The monthly forecasts for
2007 are close to the observations by the India Meteorological Department (IMD); while the average
error in all-India monthly anomalies is about 1.6%, the phase synchronization between observed and
predicted all-India weekly rainfall is 62%. We have also used recent high-resolution (~10 Km) satellite
rainfall data to validate our forecasts; both onset and area averaged weekly rainfall show good
correspondence with high-resolution data. A comparison of the seasonal anomalies from forecasts and
NOAA (CAMS) analysis shows excellent agreement, not only over India but also over surrounding
region.
|
|
| Publisher |
CSIR Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation
|
|
| Date |
2008-01
|
|
| Type |
Monograph
NonPeerReviewed |
|
| Format |
application/pdf
|
|
| Identifier |
http://cir.cmmacs.ernet.in/179/1/rrcm0802.pdf
Goswami, P and Gouda, K C and K V, Ramesh (2008) C-MMACS Long-range, High-resolution Forecasting of Monsoon Rainfall: Forecast Configuration and Multi-scale Evaluation of 2007 Monsoon. Technical Report. CSIR Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation, C-MMACS,Bangalore 560037,India. (Unpublished) |
|
| Relation |
http://cir.cmmacs.ernet.in/179/
|
|